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Can Germany Ditch Coal?

A call by Germany’s environment minister to fast-track the country’s coal exit has riled Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative-led coalition government.

Rebuffed in the run-up to December’s U.N. climate conference in Paris, Minister Barbara Hendricks has once again raised the topic. This time, things could turn out differently.

The global deal struck in the French capital, experts say, has changed the calculation. Global carbon budgets and coal reserves are now in the mainstream of Germany’s public and political dialogue. There also is a widening recognition of the need for a long-term plan in order to provide regulatory certainty. Finally, many argue that continued coal burning imperils the country’s reputation as a leader on climate change.

According to Hendricks, a first-ever proposal for fully winding down German domestic coal production will be on Merkel’s desk before the summer recess, with discussions among energy companies, trade unions and regional officials set to conclude by late March.

Hendricks is pushing for a final 2040 exit, at the latest, while industry wants to continue to mine and burn coal until at least 2050.

Prominent climate scientists and environmental activists insist that ending coal production in the early 2030s is not only scientifically necessary but also technically and economically feasible. Only if the power sector decarbonizes first, they argue, can other sectors follow. Moreover, a planned coal exit involving all stakeholders holds forth the possibility of an orderly transition—thereby avoiding disruptive impacts such as mass layoffs of coal miners or a bursting coal bubble that strands billions of dollars of investments.

“If there is going to be a bust, the German government would like to shape it and make it as painless as possible,” said Craig Morris, an American writer and translator in the energy sector who has been based in Germany since 1992.

Think of the coal miners in Kentucky or the ongoing decline in the shale gas boom, Morris added. “In the U.S., we should be having the same debate.”

Source: Scientific American