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Coal still in the running with natural gas

15 Oct 2013

Gas-fired generation continued to lose ground to coal for the month of September 2013 when compared to the same time last year, according to energy data from Genscape.
 
 
Gas-fired generation fell by 10 percent -- or 10,421 GWh -- and was primarily replaced with coal-fired generation which was up 5 percent -- or 6,486 GWh -- year over year. Stronger renewable and nuclear generation also helped displace gas. In the California ISO, wind generation was up 77% on last September, primarily due to the build out of wind capacity in the region.
 
However, above normal temperatures in much of the Midwest and south-central areas of the United States, coupled with a few key unplanned coal outages, helped give gas-fired generation some life and spur real-time volatility in the power markets. September 11 was the second highest real-time West Hub settle of the year at $107/MWh as Genscape's monitors picked up coal outages at John Amos, Harrison, Conesville, and JM Stuart. At the same time monitored gas-fired generation in the RFC region increased 27% for the week.
 
 
 
During the second week of September, the South Central region of the country also saw an uptick in gas-fired generation as coal backed off. Genscape noted decreased generation from JK Spruce, Oklaunion, and Monticello, as well as a reported explosion at the JT Deely facility. For the month, on-peak average prices at ERCOT's North Hub averaged $43.11/MWh; up 49 percent from September 2012 when prices averaged just $28.98/MWh.
 
Henry Hub prices rose 6 percent from August and were 24 percent higher than a year ago, while on the coal side only Powder River Basin (PRB) prices were higher than a year ago. Genscape estimates delivered PRB prices to be in the $2.39-$2.84/MMBtu range for the month of September; still very much "in-the-money" when compared to gas, Genscape says.  
 
Through the end of September year-to-date coal-fired generation is 6 percent higher than 2012 while natural gas is 9 percent lower, according to Genscape. After a weaker summer, total power demand has fallen behind by 1 percent or 38,861 GWh, the report notes.
 
 
Source: www.fierceenergy.com