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Cold Spell Supports 1Q21 APAC Coal Prices

10 Mar 2021

Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-09 March 2021: Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD80/tonne since mid-December 2020 as temperatures in many north Asian countries dropped to record lows, with China's relaxed import restriction since December 2020 further boosting demand for seaborne coal, says Fitch Ratings in its latest APAC Thermal Coal Watch.
 
Fitch expects the profitability of Indonesian coal miners and mining contractors to improve significantly in 1Q21, while CRU Group estimates that around 95% of seaborne producers returned to profitability by January 2021, compared with just under 40% in late-October 2020 due to the effects from the coronavirus pandemic.
 
Data from China's General Administration of Customs shows that Australian coal imports, including coking coal, plunged to zero in December 2020 following China's implementation of a soft cap on Australian coal, with no indication that the ban will be eased despite tight domestic supply. Should China eliminate all Australian coal imports in 2021, it would account for about 80 million tonnes of annual imports, around 2% of China's total coal demand.
 
The full report, APAC Thermal Coal Watch, is available on www.fitchratings.com or by clicking on the link above.
 
Source : https://www.fitchratings.com/research