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India could provide silver lining for shipping industry

he rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a second “China”, in terms of stimulating seaborne demand for commodities, mainly coal and iron ore, as well as energy-related products. If one takes a closer look at the latest country focus from the International Energy Agency (IEA), he will notice that India is moving onto the center stage of global energy taking top spot in terms of coal consumption, oil demand growth and solar PV output. As one can quickly realize it is the first two that are of particular interest to the shipping industry, with coal consumption rather important for the dry bulk market and oil demand growth for the tanker industry.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “the reason for most of this is the rapid growth in energy consumption expected to take place amongst its 1.3 billion population, something that is relatively easy to feed for such extraordinary growth levels over the next couple of years given that 240 million of them live in rural areas without electricity, while at the same time it has one of the highest growth levels in new car ownership. Both of these will prove as influential factors propelling a close to 30% increase in coal and oil consumption by 2020”.

Allied’s George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, said that “coal is India’s primary source of energy representing 40% of its energy mix while taking its position as third largest producer and consumer worldwide. Given that India is expected to keep its coal-cantered energy approach despite the global “green” pres-sure and taking into account the increased demand it will have for power capacity and electricity generation it will be interesting to see where it will look to serve its needs given that sooner or later it will find its internal production and reserves inadequate to keep up with its growing appetite. This means that although its effect on seaborne coal trade may remain capped as it takes on efforts to increase its internal production, if its growth in demand keeps on track with what it is now it wont be long before it takes up and holds the lion share in the market. It is worth mentioning that this year to date it has already surpassed Chinese imports taking up 20% of the coal trade this year, thanks to the softer demand from the previous market leader, namely China”, he noted.

Meanwhile, “things however are quite different when it comes to oil, as India relies primarily on imports to cover both its consumer and industrial needs. With over 260m passenger cars expected to be added to its current car ownership over the next 25 years and with its industry set to take a more prominent role in the world stage, expectations are for an equally bullish increase in demand for both crude oil as well as, if not more so in oil products. The only down side to this is its prime location, situated much closer to the main Middle Eastern producers then any of the OECD members or China. This means that the benefiting tonne-miles will be fewer, though at the end of the day any boost in demand is always welcome”, Lazaridis said.

So, what are the plausible dampeners to such positive scenarios? “Well for one you are still faced with the risk of policy control which may be brought about by global environmental concerns. This is particularly an issue for coal, which might take place either through a pressure for India to decrease it reliance or even through other major consumers moving away from their reliance on this “dirty fuel”. On the side of oil it seems the biggest dampener might be technology, with current trends moving to-wards more environmentally friendly modes of transportation. Nevertheless, it looks as though there is still something to keep us hopeful for the future”, Allied’s analyst concluded.

source: http://coalspot.com