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Renewables could overtake coal in producing electricity by 2030 if climate pledges are met

The International Energy Agency has suggested new technologies and government regulations are making a positive impact on climate change with solid global economic growth last year failing to produce an increase in carbon emissions and renewable power types expected to overtake coal as the world's largest source of electricity by 2030.

An IEA report released on Monday found that energy-related carbon emissions were flat in 2014 despite 3 per cent global economic growth, making it the first time since the agency was created by developing countries in the 1970s that a halt or reduction in emissions was not tied to an economic crisis.

The report is aimed at influencing policy-markers ahead of a critical United Nations climate change conference in Paris this December where more than 200 countries will attempt to hammer out an agreement to curb carbon emissions.

Countries including Switzerland, Norway and the United States as well as the European Union - which account for around a third of the world's energy-related carbon emissions - have already unveiled pledges to reduce the use of fossil fuels.

A second group of countries accounting for an additional third of energy-related carbon emissions, which includes China, have signalled their intentions.

The IEA has forecast these pledges would result in renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar overtaking coal as the largest single contributor to electricity supply although "inefficient coal-fired power generation capacity  declines only slightly" and the share of fossil fuels in the "world energy mix declines but is still around 75 per cent".

As Australia moves towards becoming the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, the energy source is tipped by the IEA to be the only fossil fuel to increase its share in electricity supply.

Oil and gas companies such as BG and Woodeside have been quick to attack the environmental shortcomings of coal and back LNG as a cleaner source of power ahead of the Paris conference.

"The cost and difficulty of mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions increases every year," said IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven.

"Time is of the essence. While we see growing consensus among countries that it is time to act, we must ensure that the steps taken are adequate and that the commitments made are kept."

The IEA report said the national pledges would have a positive impact in slowing carbon emissions from 2013-2030 with economic growth of 88 per cent expected, compared with an 8 per cent rise in emissions.

However, the agency warns the pledges are not enough to decrease emissions or meet the UN goal of limiting an increase in global temperatures  to no more than 2 degrees by 2100.

The IEA argues a peak in global energy-related emissions could be achieved by 2020 if governments adopt policies that:

    Increase energy efficiency in the industry, construction and transport sectors.
    Ban the construction of inefficient coal-fired power stations.
    Increase investment in renewable technologies from $US270 million in 2014 to $US400 million in 2030.
    Phase out fossil fuel subsidies by 2030.
    Reduce methane emissions in oil and gas production.

The IEA says about two thirds of carbon emissions come from producing and burning fossil fuels used to produce electricity.

The agency warned carbon emissions could rise in future if developing nations such as India continued to build inefficient, carbon-intensive coal-fired power plants.

source: http://www.afr.com