Coal news and updates

US coal export for the first seven months down 21% compared to same period in 2014 - EIA

Coal Supply
Lower U.S.’s domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast decline of 89 million short tons (MMst) in U.S. coal production in 2015.

According to short-term energy and winter fuels outlook of EIA, the coal production is expected to decrease in all coal-producing regions in 2015, with the largest decline on a percentage basis occurring in the Appalachian region. Interior region production, which includes the Illinois Basin (ILB), is expected to decline for the first time since 2009, while Western region production is projected to fall below 500 MMst for the first time since 1998.

The EIA’s report further noted that, U.S. coal production is expected to decrease by an additional 28 MMst (3.0%) in 2016, but Interior region production is projected to grow by 1.5%. The forecast 2016 increase in ILB coal production reflects advantages compared with other coal-producing regions, high heat content, closer proximity to major markets than coal produced in the Western region, and lower mining costs than Appalachian-produced coal.

The report further said that, the electric power sector stockpiles in U.S. were 160 MMst in July, a 5% decrease from the June level. This decrease in June-to-July coal stockpiles follows the normal seasonal pattern whereby coal stockpiles decrease during the summer months. Despite this decrease, coal stockpiles are still relatively high because of the loss in market share to natural gas for power generation. Coal inventories in July 2015 were 35 MMst higher than in July 2014, when inventories were still recovering from the effects of colder-than-normal temperatures during the 2013-14 winter.

Coal Consumption
EIA expects an 8% decrease in total coal consumption in U.S. in 2015, mainly driven by an 8% drop in electric power sector consumption. Lower natural gas prices are the key factor driving the decrease in coal consumption. Projected low natural gas prices (power sector natural gas prices are 28% lower in 2015 compared with 2014) make it more economical to run natural gas-fired generating units at higher utilization rates.

EIA’s report says, the retirements of coal-fired power plants, in response to the implementation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), also reduce coal-fired capacity in the power sector in 2015, but because the retirements are occurring throughout 2015, the full effect will not be evident until 2016.

Projected rising electricity demand and higher natural gas prices next year are expected to contribute to higher utilization rates among the remaining coal-fired power plants. Coal consumption in the electric power sector is forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2016.

Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports.

According to EIA, the lower mining costs, cheaper transportation costs, and favorable exchange rates will continue to provide an advantage to mines in other major coal-exporting countries compared with U.S. producers. Coal exports for the first seven months of 2015 are down 21% compared with the same period in 2014. Forecast coal exports fall by 20 MMst, to 77 MMst, in 2015, and then decrease by another 9 MMst (12%) in 2016 as the current global coal market trends are expected to continue. U.S. coal imports, which increased by more than 2 MMst in 2014 to 11 MMst, are expected to stay near that level in 2015 and 2016.

Coal Prices
The annual average coal price to the electric power sector averaged $2.36/MMBtu in 2014. EIA expects the delivered coal price to average $2.25/MMBtu in 2015 and to increase by one cent to average $2.26/MMBtu in 2016, says EIA in its latest report.

source: http://coalspot.com