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Australia: Coal exports forecast to smash record with value set to break $100 billion this financial year

Australian coal is set to become the second commodity ever to crack $100 billion in annual exports, according to the latest Resources and Energy Quarterly report from the federal government.

The report stated that combined coal exports were expected to reach $110 billion this financial year, after prices for metallurgical coal hit “historic highs” in the new year, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The thermal coal price has also been spiking due to Chinese demand and weather disruptions.

“Thermal coal markets are undergoing a complex transition … Prices have surged in recent months as demand outpaced supply, which remains disrupted among a range of major exporters,” the report said.

Australia is the world’s biggest exporter of metallurgical coal, and the second biggest for thermal coal, and if the forecast is correct, it would be only the second commodity to crack the $100 billion annual export figure, behind iron ore.

CQUniversity regional development professor John Rolfe said the prices, which had more than doubled, were unprecedented.

“It’s very unusual to see such sharp rises, commodity prices have been more volatile in recent years driven my world demand and fluctuations in supply,” Professor Rolfe said.

“But Australia is really benefiting at the moment from those shortages in energy and the disruptions to the world market with the war in Ukraine.”

Professor Rolfe also said the government forecast was usually on the conservative side, and he expected the export figure would likely end up even higher.