Coal news and updates

China’s coal use is rising, but emissions might not follow

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SINGAPORE—Last year, China consumed more coal, built more coal capacity and approved a record number of potential future coal power plant additions.

On Tuesday, China said coal use rose 4.3% in 2022 compared with the previous year—a higher-than-expected increase that came even as the economy was kept down by widespread Covid-19 lockdowns.

That all looks like grim news for the effort to limit climate change, and for China’s pledge to start ramping down coal consumption in 2026 and to reach peak emissions before 2030.

But China’s unusual approach to the energy transition means the impact might not be as bad as it seems. That matters since China accounts for nearly one third of the world’s total carbon-dioxide emissions.

This past year shows the difficulty in assessing China’s current and future emissions. Global Carbon Project, a research consortium that produces annual data focused on emissions used by the United Nations, forecast in November that China’s emissions had fallen 0.9%. Carbon Monitor currently estimates that China’s emissions dropped by 1.5% and the International Energy Agency said it expected China’s emissions to remain broadly flat.

As China’s newly reopened economy ramps up, emissions could rise again. China started construction on 50 gigawatts of coal power capacity in 2022—six times as much as the rest of the world, according to a report published Monday by two independent climate research organizations, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the Global Energy Monitor.

China also added a record 125 gigawatts of new solar and wind energy capacity, more than the U.S., Europe and India combined. The country says it aims to build another 160 gigawatts of solar and wind energy capacity in 2023.

If all goes to plan, this renewable power would relegate coal plants to backup status, meaning they would run well below capacity and add less to emissions than the headline number may suggest.