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Coal trade reshaped by Asian demand

07 Aug 2024

Vietnam set to surpass Chinese Taipai in global import rankings

China, the behemoth of global coal trade, continues to defy trade expectations, according to the International Energy Administration’s Coal Mid-Year Update.

Despite brimming stockpiles, the nation's coal imports surged by 12% in the first half of 2024. While a slowdown is anticipated for the remainder of the year, China's insatiable appetite has far-reaching implications for global coal supply chains and prices.

India, not to be outdone, has witnessed a “remarkable” rise in coal imports. A 21% increase in seaborne coal imports during the first four months of 2024 underscores the nation's determination to secure energy supplies amid rapid economic growth. The extension of a coal blending mandate until at least October 2024 further solidifies India's position as a major importer.

“Even though India seeks to reduce the quantity of imports, new routes are being established such as the railway from Russia to India via Iran, and a trial of met coal deliveries from Mongolia,” said the report.

However, Vietnam's emergence as a coal-hungry nation is a surprising development, said the IEA. The country's coal imports have skyrocketed 43% in the first four months of 2024, primarily driven by a confluence of factors including low hydropower availability and robust power demand growth. 

“Vietnam, which recorded remarkable growth in imports in 2023, is set to surpass Chinese Taipei as the fifth largest coal importer in 2024,” said the report. 

“However, this increase is expected to flatten for the rest of the year.”

Looking ahead to 2030, Vietnam aims to build five new coal-fired power plants that could further increase the demand for coal. However, the report noted that the announced cancellation of the Song Hau 2 project “casts doubt over the others”.