Coal's dominance a challenge for transition
17 Jun 2022
A miner works at a coal mine in Lyuliang, Shanxi province.
[Photo/China News Service]
A special
policy study from a high-level international think tank for the Chinese
government has highlighted the challenges posed to the country's low-carbon
transition due to its coal-dominated energy structure, saying that hasty
decommissioning of coal-fired power will jeopardize energy security and may
result in financial risks.
The study,
Policy Measures and Implementation Pathways for the Carbon Emission Peak and
Carbon Neutrality Goals, was unveiled on Wednesday on the sidelines of the
annual general meeting of the China Council for International Cooperation on
Environment and Development.
Coal
constitutes 94 percent of the fossil fuel reserves in China. About 70 percent
of the oil supply and about 40 percent of the natural gas in China is imported,
according to official figures.
In the short
and medium term, China's medium-to-high-speed economic development will bring
about continuously rising energy demand, the study said.
The demand
still needs to be partly met by coal despite this contradicting the country's
rigid goal of phasing out coal and reducing carbon emissions.
"Energy
security in the transition process is facing a severe test," it stressed.
It lists a
series of challenges the country faces as China endeavors to phase out coal so
it can peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and go carbon neutral before
2060.
China's
coal-fired generator sets are generally new. In 2020, they had operated for an
average of 11 years, and 75 percent of them had been in operation for less than
15 years, only half of their designed service life, it said.
Early
decommissioning of these units will strand assets worth many trillions of yuan,
it said, thus the work should be carried out in a gradual manner.
Wang Yi, a
leading author of the study, stressed the principle of "establishing the
new before abolishing the old" in the country's low-carbon transition.
China needs to build up a new power system and gradually phase out coal-fired
power, he explained.
The
installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in the country has
reached 1 billion kilowatts and is expected to go beyond 6 billion by 2060, he
said. Wang is also a researcher with the Institutes of Science and Development
at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
"It
needs systematic efforts to build such a huge power system dominated by
renewables," he said, adding that concerted efforts, for example, are
needed to simultaneously promote the development of grid, energy storage and
distributed power generation in the process.
The strong
connection coal has with other industrial sectors makes it even more
challenging to phase out, said the study. The power generation and steel
industries, for instance, consumed 2.19 billion and 730 million metric tons of
coal in 2020, respectively.
The study
also warned of social issues related to coal reduction.
During the
13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) period, China phased out outdated coal production
capacity by 1 billion tons, it noted. Roughly 1 million workers in the industry
were laid off and reemployed in the process.
With no
relevant skills, workers in the coal industry are not likely to be favorites
for enterprises in other sectors. It can be difficult to get them reemployed
via vocational training, the study said.
It
recommended that China carry out green and low-carbon energy policies "in
a reasonable and orderly manner on the premise of ensuring energy
security".
China should
strive to realize that the new energy demand in the country is mainly met by
renewable energy, it said. The energy transition process along the entire
industrial chain should be planned systematically to better coordinate with
upstream and downstream industries.