Coal news and updates

Commodities 2024: Massive renewables additions expected to put coal in back seat

The US is projected to add 40.6 GW of renewable capacity in 2024, with wind and solar surpassing coal-fired generation for the first time, as recently announced guidance on domestic manufacturing is expected to help strengthen the clean energy build out.

Coal-fired generation will have the sharpest drop due to renewable energy growth, low natural gas prices and continued coal plant retirements. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts coal-fired power plants will generate less in 2024 -- 599 billion kwh -- than the combined generation from solar and wind -- 688 billion kWh -- for the first time on record.

The advanced development pipeline totaled 85.977 GW of capacity across 48 states by the end of Q3, according to American Clean Power Association. Texas leads 9.617 GW in advanced development, while California and New York follow closely behind with 9,096 MW and 8,115 MW, respectively. Alaska and Washington are the only states with no clean power projects in advanced development.

Onshore vs. offshore wind

S&P Global expects a combined 40.6 GW of capacity additions in 2024 from wind, solar and battery, with onshore wind making up 5.9 GW of added capacity next year and offshore wind expected to add 800 MW, said Shayne Willette, S&P Global Commodity Insights senior research analyst.

However, onshore wind capacity addition is expected to decline year on year, from 8.6 GW in 2023 to 5.9 GW in 2024, Willette said.

"This contraction is likely the result of a confluence of several factors," Willette said. "We're seeing increased competition from solar, constrained transmission capacity in traditional wind hubs, and long project development lead times."

The woes resulting from supply chain constraints and high interest rates for offshore wind are expected to continue into 2024, he added, but Vineyard I off the coast of Massachusetts is expected to go online in 2024, accounting for the entirety of the 800 MW expected to come online in 2024.

Regional overview

Onshore wind additions are concentrated in several regions, with the Midcontinent Independent System Operator and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas leading the way, according to S&P Global.