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Global seaborne coal supply in Q2 forecast to surge 12% on increased exports from Indonesia and Russia

According to Commodities at Sea, S&P Global Market Intelligence, global seaborne coal shipments for the first 26 days of June 2022 increased by 13% year on year (y/y) to 100.7 million metric tons (mt).

While the shipments showed a considerable increase from Indonesia, Russia and Australia, the figures were lower from Colombia. Shipments of seaborne coal to mainland China declined during the same period, mainly due to higher domestic production and Covid-19 related lockdowns.

Global seaborne shipments in the second quarter of 2022 are forecast to increase 12% y/y to 344.4 million mt, with an increase in Russian coal shipments destined to mainland China, the Mediterranean, Indian subcontinent and Northwestern Europe. The significant increase in the shipments of Indonesian coal to Indian subcontinent will be sufficient to make up for the decline in its shipments to mainland China, while Australian coal shipments to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan offsetting the decrease in its shipments towards Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia.

Pranay Shukla, associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence says that “attempts by European utilities to build inventories of Russian thermal coal ahead of the ban in August, together with lower Russian gas flows, led high calorific value (cv) thermal coal prices to record high levels. In the mid-to-low cv coal market, India’s domestic coal stocks both at the mines and plants fell, while power demand increased, leading to greater demand for Indonesian coal. The market will be keeping a very watchful eye on Q3 demand from China as a rise in demand here could see international coal prices rise to unimaginable levels”
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence