Impact of global coal price and supply turbulences controllable on Chinese market
11 Apr 2022
As the EU imposed embargoes on coal from Russia, which is a major global supplier, international coal prices continue to hike, raising concerns over energy supply and security.
For China, which is the world's largest coal importer, however, only eight percent of its supply is dependent on imports. Therefore, the international coal prices and supply turbulences will have little impact on domestic coal supply, or at least the impact is controllable, analysts said.
On Friday, the EU imposed a fifth package of sanctions on Russia, including an import ban on all forms of Russian coal. This will affect one fourth of all Russian coal exports, amounting to a loss of around 8 billion euro ($8.7 billion) of revenue per year for Russia, according to European Commission.
Russia exported more than 200 million tons of coal in 2021, accounting for 17 percent of global coal exports and nearly 50 million tons to Europe. And for some major economies in Europe, the share is even higher.
For instance, Germany received 55 percent of its natural gas, 50 percent of its coal, and 35 percent of its oil from Russia, according to Germany's Economy Minister.
The EU embargoes mean that about 50 million tons of Russia coal need to find new markets, while the EU also needs to find other sources to fill the 50-million-ton gap, an analyst surnamed Li from an industry association, told the Global Times on Sunday.
"For both sides, the need is in emergency, which will definitely push up global exporters' coal prices. But Russian coal prices may see a decline if it is in a hurry to sell energy. In any case, the global coal market faces turbulence as the current relationship between demand and supply is disrupted," said Li.
Energy consumption will continue to grow, and we expect global consumption to reach 8 billion tons of standard coal in 2022. And, there are clear signs that coal, natural gas and other new energy prices will still continue to rise, according to Li.