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New UserIndonesian thermal coal exports scale new highs in early 2024: Maguire
20 Feb 2024
(The
opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
LITTLETON, Colorado: The world's top exporter
of thermal coal is on track to smash last year's record sales after projected
shipments for the first two months of 2024 jumped nearly 25% from the same
period in 2023.
Indonesian exports of thermal and thermal
bituminous coal - used in power generation - are on track to top 90 million
metric tons for January and February, up 24% from the same two months in 2023,
ship tracking data from Kpler shows.
For 2023 as a whole, Indonesian exports scaled
a new high of 504.6 million tons, so if the blistering pace of exports seen so
far this year is sustained, 2024 will mark a new high for Indonesian exports of
the high-polluting power fuel.
TOP DESTINATIONS & KNOWN UNKNOWNS
China, India, South Korea and the Philippines
were the top markets for Indonesia coal so far this year, accounting for 33%,
15%, 5.8% and 5.1% respectively of the shipments so far.
Along with Japan, those markets were the top
five destinations for Indonesian coal in 2023.
In volume terms, the 29.4 million tons shipped
to China through February is nearly 9% less than shipped over the first two
months of 2023.
However, Kpler ship-tracking data has assessed
over 21 million tons of coal cargoes that have loaded or are being loaded but
have yet to confirm their final destination on ship manifests.
Many of those cargoes are likely bound for
China, the world's largest coal consumer, but may not be confirmed until after
the Lunar New Year break is over.
Shipments to India topped 13.5 million tons
through February, which is the highest for that time slot since 2020.
India imported 100.85 million tons of Indonesian
coal in total in 2023, and so far in 2024 Indonesian shipments are running
around 3.5% ahead of the 2023 pace.
Exports to South Korea, Philippines, Japan and
Malaysia were all slightly down from the same period in 2023, but are again
likely to see upward revisions in those volumes towards the end of the month
once ship manifests are updated.
A key driver of the extent of coal demand in
those countries will be how well China's economy rebounds from the slump seen
since 2022.
An enduring debt crisis across China's critical
property arena has stifled activity in China's construction and heavy industry
sectors. But Beijing is expected to unveil new stimulus measures at next
month's parliamentary meetings aimed at reviving growth.
If successful, industrial activity and energy
use will also pick up elsewhere in Asia as suppliers of materials and products
to China also pick up steam.
Industrial activity and coal use are also
expected to gather pace in Vietnam if China's economic growth improves.
Indonesian coal shipments bound for Vietnam are
already on track to rise by close to 600,000 tons from the January-February
period in 2023, to a record 2.15 million tons.
Vietnam imported a record 17.6 million tons in
2023 as a whole, so is already running well ahead of the pace needed to scale
new highs in 2024.
If China's construction industry stages a
recovery in 2024, that will spur increased demand throughout the construction
materials and parts supply chain which extends into Vietnam in the form of
cement and steel plants.