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Macro Intelligence: global coal decline expected by 2026

03 Jul 2024

 

Global coal consumption faces a forecasted decline through 2026 as major economies shift towards cleaner energy sources, despite current high usage and recent price fluctuations.

While coal is a dirty word for some investors, the reality is coal is still the world’s largest energy source for electricity generation, steelmaking, and cement production.

Despite the UN’s COP28 climate summit declaring “the beginning of the end” for fossil fuels, it did not go so far as to mandate the end of coal-fired power plants; rather, it called for an accelerated phase-down of unabated coal power.

Despite still rising demand for coal in China, India, and other ASEAN countries, the IEA is forecasting China’s coal consumption will fall in 2024 before plateauing through 2026. Overall coal consumption is forecast to peak this decade. It is the first time the agency has predicted a drop in coal consumption over its forecast period. This prediction comes even in the absence of governments implementing stronger clean energy and climate policies.