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Opinion: China's rising hydro and solar set to cap coal use in 2024

26 Apr 2024

Consumption growth was concentrated in manufacturing (+112 billion kWh) as factories returned to normal operations after widespread disruptions caused by lockdowns in 2022 and 2023.

LONDON: China's electricity consumption increased by 209 billion kilowatt-hours, or 10 per cent, in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, when the country was emerging from the exit wave of the coronavirus.

Consumption growth was concentrated in manufacturing (+112 billion kWh) as factories returned to normal operations after widespread disruptions caused by lockdowns in 2022 and 2023.

But there was also significant growth from services firms (+53 billion kWh), residential users (+41 billion kWh) and primary industries such as agriculture and mining (+3 billion kWh), according to the National Energy Administration.

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 Chartbook: China electricity generation

Generation from large-scaled grid-connected power plants increased by 166 billion kWh (+8 per cent) in the first three months of 2024, according to separate data published by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Most of the extra generation was provided by thermal power plants (+108 billion kWh) primarily fired by coal with a small percentage burning gas.

There were smaller contributions from wind farms (+34 billion kWh), grid-connected solar generators (+17 billion kWh) and hydroelectric generators (+7 billion kWh).

Thermal generation rose 7 per cent from the previous year to a seasonal record of 1,603 billion kWh and accounted for 72 per cent of all grid-connected output.

 By contrast, hydro generation increased by just 3 per cent to 210 billion kWh and was well below the seasonal record of 221 billion kWh set in the first quarter of 2022.

Hydro has been depressed by the persistent drought across southern China that started in 2022 and lasted through 2023.

But southern areas have been hit by unusually early and heavy rains since early in April which should recharge water resources and boost hydro output from May onwards.

SPRING RAINS

China's rainfall and hydro generation are concentrated in the southern part of the country, where spring rains are followed by heavier precipitation during the wet phase of the East Asian Monsoon from June to September.