Coal news and updates

Rising domestic output to limit India’s thermal coal imports in 2025

This aligns with the government’s push to reduce dependency on imported coal and strengthen self-sufficiency in energy resources.

New Delhi: India’s domestic coal production is expected to rise significantly in 2025, keeping industrial thermal coal imports stable at approximately 206 million metric tonnes (mt), according to a forecast by S&P Global Commodity Insights. This aligns with the government’s push to reduce dependency on imported coal and strengthen self-sufficiency in energy resources.

Vignesh Sundaram, Principal Research Analyst at Commodity Insights, said, “Total imports are forecast to reach around 206 million mt in 2025 due to increased capital spending on infrastructure. However, strong domestic production will likely keep overall imports stable.”

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China’s influence on Asian thermal coal pricesChina, Asia’s largest coal consumer, is expected to import around 380 million mt of thermal coal in 2025, slightly lower than the 2024 figure of 353 million mt. Pat See Khoo, Senior Analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, noted, “The country is likely to import around 380 million mt of thermal coal in 2025, slightly less than 2024 imports amid stable domestic supply and moderate coal-based power generation growth.”

Economic factors, including China’s projected GDP growth of 4.1% in 2025 and an anticipated increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods from 14% to 25% by mid-2025, are likely to weigh on industrial demand.

India’s domestic focusIndia’s strong domestic coal production, bolstered by government initiatives, is expected to sustain energy requirements for industrial and infrastructure projects while reducing import reliance. This trend is anticipated to alleviate pressure on global thermal coal prices in 2025, particularly in Asia.

Indonesia and Australia are set to remain key suppliers to the region, though logistical challenges and declining reserves may impact supply chains. Russia, another major exporter, is likely to face constraints due to infrastructure limitations in its coal-producing region, Kuzbass.